The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has signaled that it may revise its global economic growth forecast upwards later this month, reflecting recent improvements in inflation trends and stability in global financial markets. However, senior officials have cautioned that mounting trade tensions could undermine this modest progress.
Speaking at a global finance gathering earlier this week, IMF First Deputy Managing Director Gita Gopinath said the global economy was showing signs of resilience, with inflation continuing to ease and markets responding positively. However, she stressed that economic uncertainty persists due to an increase in protectionist trade measures and geopolitical frictions.
“While inflation is easing and monetary conditions are stabilizing, the risk of economic fragmentation remains significant,” Gopinath said.
The IMF’s World Economic Outlook, which is expected to be published at the end of July, will reflect these new projections. Although no specific figure has yet been released, officials have hinted that the revised growth estimate will be slightly higher than the 3.2 percent forecast issued in April.
Gopinath warned that the increasing number of tariffs, export restrictions, and supply chain disruptions could act as a brake on global recovery, particularly for developing economies.
The IMF has repeatedly expressed concern over the long-term consequences of decoupling among major economies, which could reduce global GDP by as much as 7 percent, according to previous studies.
In the past year, inflation has declined in most advanced economies, allowing central banks to begin easing tight monetary policies. Despite these improvements, Gopinath noted that investment and productivity remain below pre-pandemic levels in many regions.
As the IMF prepares to release its updated assessment, economists around the world are closely watching not just the numbers, but the growing divergence between financial optimism and geopolitical instability.
The revised outlook will aim to capture this dual reality — modest economic gains overshadowed by persistent risks to global cooperation and trade.
